Is Financial Regulation Good or Bad for Real Estate Companies? – An Event Study

This study investigates how three regulatory reforms undertaken in the aftermath of the global financial crisis have affected returns of real estate companies. The three reforms are aimed at regulating different segments of the market – Basel III targets banks, and could restrict the availability of bank debt to the sector; the Alternative Investment Fund Management Directive (AIFMD) targets funds, which could increase compliance costs and reduce the potential investor pool; the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR) is aimed at derivative trading and could impact the cost of debt capital. We employ an event study methodology using daily stock returns of real estate companies and identify the regulatory events through news published in major international financial newspapers and news agencies. Our results show different responses across the three regulations. For Basel III we find support for the regulatory burden hypothesis of the bank lending channel for small real estate firms and firms with low debt-to-equity ratios as they cannot diversify their funding sources. The direct regulatory effect as tested using AIFMD announcements supports the profit-based reaction hypothesis for large firms. We also show that the news have asymmetric effects with tighter regulation news more frequently leading to significant responses in average abnormal returns (AARs) than loosening regulation news

The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: a multi-factor error correction approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks produced anomalous results, with equities often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns (from both private and public markets) and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalisation stock returns in both markets is carried out. Inflation is subdivided into expected and unexpected components using different estimation techniques. The analyses are undertaken using long-run error correction techniques. In the long-run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly direct market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from equities

Purified Human Pancreatic Duct Cell Culture Conditions Defined by Serum-Free High-Content Growth Factor Screening

The proliferation of pancreatic duct-like CK19+ cells has implications for multiple disease states including pancreatic cancer and diabetes mellitus. The in vitro study of this important cell type has been hampered by their limited expansion compared to fibroblast-like vimentin+ cells that overgrow primary cultures. We aimed to develop a screening platform for duct cell mitogens after depletion of the vimentin+ population. The CD90 cell surface marker was used to remove the vimentin+ cells from islet-depleted human pancreas cell cultures by magnetic-activated cell sorting. Cell sorting decreased CD90+ cell contamination of the cultures from 34±20% to 1.3±0.6%, yielding purified CK19+ cultures with epithelial morphology. A full-factorial experimental design was then applied to test the mitogenic effects of bFGF, EGF, HGF, KGF and VEGF. After 6 days in test conditions, the cells were labelled with BrdU, stained and analyzed by high-throughput imaging. This screening assay confirmed the expected mitogenic effects of bFGF, EGF, HGF and KGF on CK19+ cells and additionally revealed interactions between these factors and VEGF. A serum-free medium containing bFGF, EGF, HGF and KGF led to CK19+ cell expansion comparable to the addition of 10% serum. The methods developed in this work should advance pancreatic cancer and diabetes research by providing effective cell culture and high-throughput screening platforms to study purified primary pancreatic CK19+ cells

Efficacy of a strategy to prevent neonatal early-onset group B streptococcal (GBS) sepsis

Background: Existing guidelines recommend different strategies to prevent early-onset neonatal GBS sepsis. In 1997, using our own data on incidence and risk factors, we established a new prevention strategy which includes GBS screening at 36 weeks' gestation and intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) in women with positive or unknown GBS colonization with at least one risk factor. The present study evaluates the efficacy of the new prevention strategy. Methods: Retrospective study of the incidence of early-onset GBS sepsis among all live births at the University Women's Hospital Basel between 1997 and 2002. Additional analysis of delivery and post partum period of all GBS sepsis cases, including GBS screening, risk factors during labor (prematurity, rupture of membranes (ROM) <12 h, intrapartum signs of infection), and IAP. Comparison of this group's characteristics G2 (9,385 live births, using the new strategy) with the previous group, G1 (1984-1993, 16,126 live births, without GBS screening or routine IAP) was performed. Results: The incidence of early-onset GBS sepsis was reduced from 1/1000 (G1) to 0.53/1000 (G2). We observed a significant reduction of overall intrapartum riskfactors in cases of GBS sepsis. Conclusion: This study suggests that our new prevention strategy is effective in reducing the incidence of early-onset GBS sepsis in neonates. In comparison, implementation of the CDC's prevention strategy might have prevented 2 additional cases in 9385 live births. However, this would have required treating a much larger number of pregnant women with IAP with consequential increasing costs, side effects and complication

Quality predictors of abdominal fetal electrocardiography recording in antenatal ambulatory and bedside settings

Background: Fetal electrocardiography using an abdominal monitor (Monica AN24™) could increase the diagnostic use of fetal heart rate (fHR) variability measurements. However, signal quality may depend on factors such as maternal physical activity, posture, and bedside versus ambulatory setting. Methods: Sixty-three healthy women wore the monitor at home and 42 women during a hospital stay. All women underwent a posture experiment, and all home and 13 hospital participants wore the monitor during daytime and nighttime. The success rate (SR) of fHR detection was analyzed in relation to maternal physical activity, posture, daytime versus nighttime, and other maternal and fetal predictors. Results: Ambulatorily, the SR was 86.8% for nighttime and 40.2% for daytime. The low daytime SR was largely due to effects of maternal physical activity and posture. The in-hospital SR was lower during nighttime (71.1%) and similar during daytime (43.3%). SR was related to gestational age, but not affected by pre-pregnancy and current body mass index or fetal growth restriction. Conclusions: The success of beat-to-beat fHR detection strongly depends on the home/hospital setting and predictors such as time of recording, activity levels, and maternal posture. Its clinical utility may be limited in periods of unsupervised recording with physical activity or posture shifts

The perception and management of risk in UK office property development

Risk is an ever-present aspect of business, and risk taking is necessary for profit and economic progress. Speculative property development is popularly perceived as a 'risky business' yet, like other entrepreneurs, developers have opportunities to manage the risks they face; techniques include phasing and joint ventures. The associated areas of investment portfolio risk, development risk analysis and construction risk management have all been addressed by research. This article presents new knowledge about how developers perceive risks and the means they subsequently adopt to manage them. The developers of office projects across the UK were sent questionnaires by post. Respondents were asked about their perceptions of risks at the first appraisal stage and currently and about the risk management techniques that they had adopted. In-depth interviews with a selection of respondents were then used to discuss and augment the findings. Developers were most concerned about market-based risks at both stages. Concern about production-orientated risks was lower and fell significantly between the two stages. A fixed price contract was the most common risk management technique. Risk management techniques were used more often outside London and the South East. Developer type affects both the perception and management of risk. While developers do manage risk, decisions are made on the basis of professional and business experience. These findings should help development companies manage risk in a more objective and analytical way

Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Pregnancy and delivery outcomes of HIV infected women in Switzerland 2003-2008

Objective: Rates of vertical HIV transmission between mother and child are low, allowing many HIV positive women to have children with near impunity. In this study, data from the Swiss Mother and Child HIV Cohort Study were used to describe maternal characteristics and their association with pregnancy outcomes in HIV positive women. Study design: HIV positive women were followed prospectively during their pregnancies and deliveries by anonymous questionnaires between January 2003 and October 2008. Adverse pregnancy outcomes included preterm delivery, preeclampsia and gestational diabetes mellitus. Results: This study included 266 HIV positive women, of which 67 (25.2%) were first diagnosed with HIV during pregnancy. Thirty percent (n=80) of the women had pregnancy complications after 24weeks of gestation. Preterm delivery was noted in 72 (27%) patients. Other complications included preeclampsia (n=7; 2.6%) and gestational diabetes (n=7; 2.6%). Older maternal age was the only risk factor associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes (adjusted odds ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.12, P=0.02). Conclusions: HIV positive women, especially with advanced maternal age, have high-risk pregnancies and should be monitored as in an interdisciplinary setting. The preponderance of initial HIV diagnosis during pregnancy confirms the importance of HIV screening in pregnant wome

A Multi-Parameter, High-Content, High-Throughput Screening Platform to Identify Natural Compounds that Modulate Insulin and Pdx1 Expression

Diabetes is a devastating disease that is ultimately caused by the malfunction or loss of insulin-producing pancreatic beta-cells. Drugs capable of inducing the development of new beta-cells or improving the function or survival of existing beta-cells could conceivably cure this disease. We report a novel high-throughput screening platform that exploits multi-parameter high-content analysis to determine the effect of compounds on beta-cell survival, as well as the promoter activity of two key beta-cell genes, insulin and pdx1. Dispersed human pancreatic islets and MIN6 beta-cells were infected with a dual reporter lentivirus containing both eGFP driven by the insulin promoter and mRFP driven by the pdx1 promoter. B-score statistical transformation was used to correct systemic row and column biases. Using this approach and 5 replicate screens, we identified 7 extracts that reproducibly changed insulin and/or pdx1 promoter activity from a library of 1319 marine invertebrate extracts. The ability of compounds purified from these extracts to significantly modulate insulin mRNA levels was confirmed with real-time PCR. Insulin secretion was analyzed by RIA. Follow-up studies focused on two lead compounds, one that stimulates insulin gene expression and one that inhibits insulin gene expression. Thus, we demonstrate that multi-parameter, high-content screening can identify novel regulators of beta-cell gene expression, such as bivittoside D. This work represents an important step towards the development of drugs to increase insulin expression in diabetes and during in vitro differentiation of beta-cell replacements